Since the beginning of the "Epic Fury" war led by the United States against Iran, it has been said that a clear end to the conflict was not on the table, such that U.S. President Donald Trump could achieve his declared goals at the outbreak of the confrontation. These goals consisted of regime change in Tehran, the final elimination of the Iranian nuclear threat, the destruction of its ballistic missile capabilities, and an end to its support for armed proxies in the region.

Many also believed that Washington failed remarkably to anticipate Iran's move to close the vital artery of global oil trade—the Strait of Hormuz—even though Tehran had hinted at this option for years. According to this view, this placed the United States in a defensive position, forcing it to impose a blockade on Iranian ports, which effectively meant a naval siege on the entire Gulf region, carrying numerous military and economic risks.

However, contrary to this perception, the shift from direct military warfare to what can be described as an "economic pressure war"—through sanctions and blockades—may have placed Washington in the geopolitical position it sought from the beginning, whether by prior design or as a result of unforeseen developments.

In Trump’s vision of the new world order, which is supposed to be divided into three major spheres of influence, the United States remains the dominant power, according to the 2025 National Security Strategy. While Washington focuses its direct influence in the Western Hemisphere, it retains the ability to rebalance other regions to protect its interests.

Within this framework, one of these circles is supposed to be formed either under the leadership of traditional European powers—such as Britain, France, and Germany—or led by Russia should it emerge as a dominant power on the continent. In either case, the United States retains a leading role through existing alliances or new arrangements.

The greatest challenge, however, lies in the third circle: China. American concern has escalated since 2022, when the Russian war in Ukraine was viewed as a model that Beijing might attempt to replicate in Taiwan, especially given Chinese President Xi Jinping's statements regarding military readiness by 2027.

The United States faces greater difficulty in containing China compared to Europe or Russia, as it does not possess the same political and economic leverage over it, and Beijing has sought for years to surpass Washington as the world's largest economic power.

Yet, China suffers from a major structural weakness: its heavy reliance on energy imports. Here, the Middle East emerges as a primary source of oil and gas, prompting Beijing to expand its influence in the region through its previously launched Belt and Road Initiative, which is based on concluding long-term agreements with regional countries in exchange for massive investments.

China has specifically bolstered its influence in both Iran and Iraq, where it controls a large portion of their energy sectors. Furthermore, Tehran's regional influence—extending across the so-called "Shiite Crescent"—gave Beijing an additional advantage in expanding its impact.

The strategic importance here lies in the fact that control over vital energy corridors, such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, grants immense geopolitical leverage. From this standpoint, Washington believes that Iran—and China behind it—cannot be allowed to control these vital arteries.

Therefore, the broader American goal may be to ensure that control over these corridors remains outside of Chinese influence, whether through direct military presence or future political arrangements with Iran.

This strategy is not limited to the Middle East; other American moves indicate a broader pattern involving the securing of strategic passages worldwide, such as the GIUK gap (Greenland-Iceland-UK), the Panama Canal, and enhancing influence in the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea through defense partnerships.

In this context, analysts believe the primary goal is no longer to lower oil prices, but rather to secure geopolitical control over vital waterways, even if this results in energy prices remaining high for a long period.

Some experts conclude that a significant reduction in oil prices may only be achieved in the event of a radical change in Iran that grants the United States direct or indirect control over the Strait of Hormuz—a scenario that remains distant at the present time.

Major Wall Street indices opened slightly lower on Monday as uncertainty persisted regarding peace talks between the United States and Iran. Investors are also bracing for a dense wave of corporate earnings and the upcoming Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting later this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 118.5 points or 0.24% at the open to reach 49,112.2 points, while the S&P 500 fell 12.4 points or 0.17% to 7,152.72 points. The Nasdaq Composite also declined by 0.15% or 37 points to 24,799.637 points.

This performance comes as investors balance the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East with expectations for a strong earnings season, focusing specifically on monetary policy signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

On the corporate front, investors are awaiting results from five of the "Magnificent Seven" companies, adding significance to a week where the market has priced in robust growth.

Additionally, eyes are turned toward the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Wednesday, which may mark the final meeting for Chair Jerome Powell before Kevin Warsh assumes the position in May.

CoinDesk reported on April 27 that Bitcoin climbed to a session high of 79,480 dollars before retreating to approximately 77,800 dollars, marking a decline of nearly 2%.

This pullback coincided with a rise in oil prices, as Brent crude climbed to 107 dollars per barrel amid supply concerns fueled by renewed tensions between the United States and Iran.

Bitcoin faced significant selling pressure during its attempt to breach the 80,000 dollars level, with volatility increasing as U.S. markets opened and Bitcoin futures began trading on the CME Group exchange.

Altcoins experienced steeper losses, with the Lido DAO token (LDO) dropping by about 17% to become one of the session's worst-performing assets. Key sector indices also fell between 1% and 2%.

Derivatives markets saw liquidations totaling nearly 300 million dollars, a significant portion of which came from short positions, indicating that a brief upward surge was followed by a rapid bearish reversal.

In contrast, open interest in XRP futures rose by about 2.5% over the past 24 hours, the largest increase among major cryptocurrencies. However, funding rates remained negative, reflecting prevailing caution in the derivatives market.

Regarding volatility indicators, data showed a decrease in 30-day implied volatility for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, while the VIX index, which measures traditional market volatility, stayed at low levels.

The report noted that demand for downside hedging continues to dominate the options market, despite some investors adopting strategies to capitalize on rising volatility. Meanwhile, the CoinMarketCap Altcoin Season Index stood at 39, remaining within neutral territory.

Oil prices surged by approximately 3% on Monday as stalled peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, combined with a dual blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, intensified global supply concerns.

Brent crude rose by $3.00, or 2.9%, to settle at 108.36 dollars per barrel—its highest level in three weeks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $2.45, or 2.6%, to reach 96.85 dollars. These gains follow a historic week where Brent soared 17% and WTI 13%, marking the largest weekly increases since the conflict began.

Market optimism regarding a ceasefire faded over the weekend. While President Donald Trump signaled openness to a call for negotiations, he maintained that Iran would never be permitted to possess nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi conducted a high-stakes diplomatic tour through Oman and Pakistan before heading to Moscow. Despite these efforts, the two nations remain fundamentally at odds over the nuclear file and freedom of navigation through the Strait.

The dual blockade—Iran’s restriction of the Strait and the U.S. counter-blockade of Iranian ports—has paralyzed one of the world's most critical energy arteries. Analysts at PVM Oil Associates estimate that between 10 to 13 million barrels per day (bpd) are currently offline.

- Vessel Traffic: Data from Kpler indicates that shipping through the Strait remains at a virtual standstill; on Sunday, only a single oil products tanker was recorded entering the Gulf.

- Inventory Drawdown: Global oil inventories are depleting at a record pace due to the ongoing disruptions.

Reflecting the severity of the crisis, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its oil price projections for the fourth quarter:

- Brent: Raised to 90 dollars per barrel.

- WTI: Raised to 83 dollars per barrel.

The bank warned that the global market is shifting toward a massive deficit. Analysts noted that the unprecedented scale of this shock and exceptionally high refined product prices pose economic risks that extend far beyond the raw cost of crude.